The latest SDAR data shows luxury-market supply rebuilding from the pandemic lows. As the first chart illustrates, active listings in August are generally higher than a year ago across several coastal and North County zips, while still below pre-pandemic levels in most areas. The takeaway: buyers have more choice than last year, but inventory remains constrained compared with 2018–2019.
The second chart (MSI) underscores how uneven conditions are. Buyer-tilting dynamics persist in parts of Rancho Santa Fe and Del Mar, balanced conditions hold in places like La Jolla and Encinitas, and seller-favored conditions remain in tighter-supply submarkets such as Carmel Valley and Carlsbad SE. Strategy continues to be hyper-local.
Financing has turned incrementally more supportive. As of September 11, Freddie Mac’s survey shows the 30-year fixed at 6.35%—an 11-month low—with the 15-year at 5.50%. California rate trackers are similar, with the state’s 30-year fixed hovering around the low-6% range.
Outlooks point to stability or gradual easing rather than a sharp drop. The Mortgage Bankers Association expects home-price growth to slow toward roughly 1% by late 2025 as supply improves, while the California Association of REALTORS® projects higher 2025 sales and modest price gains as rates ease and inventory normalizes.
Implications for the luxury tier: where MSI is higher, buyers may find improved negotiation room; in balanced areas, precise pricing and standout presentation remain decisive; in low-MSI enclaves, well-positioned listings continue to draw multiple interested parties even as borrowing costs improve.
Overall, San Diego’s high-end market is moving toward a healthier equilibrium. The previous charts provide the context: a measured rise in inventory, notable cross-market differences in MSI, and mortgage rates that have eased into the mid-6% range—key inputs to watch as we head into fall.
As market conditions continue to evolve, understanding the value of your property has never been more important. For a personalized look at your home’s current market position, request your complimentary valuation below.